Raia Drogasil (RADL3.SA): GLP-1 Uncertainty Creates Compelling Entry Point; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Raia Drogasil (RADL3.SA): GLP-1 Uncertainty Creates Compelling Entry Point; Buy

Goldman Sachs Raia Drogasil (RADL3.SA)

GLP-1 market update: R$23bn TAM by 2027E

Our Latam Healthcare team expects Brazil’s GLP-1 market to reach R$23.1bn in

2027E, implying +32% yoy growth. This estimate is based on a projected average ticket

of R$900 and c.25.5mn boxes sold. The new projection marks a slight reduction from

the previous estimate of R$24.2bn (-4%), driven by a lower average ticket (-30% vs. GSe

at R$1,300 before), but partially offset by higher expected volumes (+37% vs. GSe at

18.6mn boxes before). As the team further refined its projections, they broke out sales

of semaglutide sales to incorporate the evolving dynamics of reference products and the

so-called ‘Similares’ (branded) generics. The team assumes:

n Tirzepatide volumes growing by +20% yoy, as the reference drug Mounjaro should

continue to attract demand due to its greater effectiveness. The team assumes

prices to remain flat at c.R$1.7k, with no further price cuts and the maturation of

demand for higher doses offsetting the new discount program (link).

n For Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, volumes declining by -30% yoy, impacted by the entry

of Semaglutide ‘Similares’. The team assumes stable prices, as it expects the

manufacturer to hold prices on its premium brand and compete with Brazilian

branded ‘Similares’ through the company’s partnership with local lab Eurofarma

(Poviztra and Extensior).

n For Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy drug, the team assumes yoy flat sales, as the approved

branded ‘Similares’ are still positioned in the 1mg dose, which may help Wegovy

sustain its volumes for some time.

n No GLP-1 oral pills for now, given lack of visibility on the potential launch timeline.