Jun 2026 Monthly Passenger Transportation Revenue: We Infer Shortfall in Non-commuter Revenue vs. Guidance Mainly Reflects Firm-specific Factors

Research evidence excerpt

Jun 2026 Monthly Passenger Transportation Revenue: We Infer Shortfall in Non-commuter Revenue vs. Guidance Mainly Reflects Firm-specific Factors

Update

July 12, 2026 11:13 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MTokyo Metro (9023) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Jun 2026 Monthly Passenger Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Transportation Revenue: We

Infer Shortfall in Non-commuter

Revenue vs. Guidance Mainly

Tokyo Metro (9023.T, 9023 JT)

Railways | Japan

Reflects Firm-specific Factors Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥1,380

After market close on July 10, the company disclosed passenger transportation Shr price, close (Jul 10, 2026) ¥1,440

revenue for Jun 2026. Revenue growth was +3.1% YoY for commuter passes and Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥836.3

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥4.6

+1.4% YoY for non commuter travel. Our initial impression is slightly negative. (1)

The company's F3/27 full-year guidance assumes revenue growth of +3.1% YoY for

commuter passes and +4.8% YoY for non-commuter travel. In contrast, F3/27 1Q

showed +3.1% YoY for commuter passes and +2.3% YoY for non-commuter travel,

suggesting non-commuter revenue is tracking below the pace required to achieve

the full-year plan. While unfavorable weather in Jun may have been one factor, we

believe the primary reason for the shortfall versus plan is weaker-than-expected

inflows from JR East following its fare hike. We estimate this benefit at

approximately ¥2.5bn annually, equivalent to roughly 1.1ppt of revenue growth. (2)

Among the nine railway operators in our coverage, Tokyo Metro is the only company

whose F3/27 1Q railway revenue appears to be tracking below plan.