Transmission of AI Super Surplus in Korea - Mostly Through FX and Fiscal Policy

Research evidence excerpt

Transmission of AI Super Surplus in Korea - Mostly Through FX and Fiscal Policy

Economics Research

13 July 2026 | 8:57AM HKT

ASIA ECONOMICS ANALYST

Transmission of AI Super Surplus in Korea - Mostly Through FX and

Fiscal Policy

n Korea is among the major beneficiaries of the AI boom. Exports have surged on Goohoon Kwon, CFA

+852-2978-0048 |

sharp memory-price gains and are on track to surpass US$1 trillion in 2026. We goohoon.kwon@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

use cross-country terms-of-trade (TOT) case studies to assess the macro

Irene Choi

implications of large AI-driven TOT gains in Korea. +82(2)3788-1722 | irene.choi@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch

n Our cross-country study shows that positive TOT shocks are generally associated Andrew Tilton

+852-2978-1802 |

with currency appreciation across a broad set of exporters. However, the broad andrew.tilton@gs.com

macro effects differ meaningfully between commodity and manufacturing

exporters. Commodity exporters tend to experience stronger consumption and

inflation but weaker capex, while manufacturing exporters tend to see more

stable consumption, lower inflation, and stronger capex. The key distinction lies

in how export-income gains are transmitted to consumption and investment

across these export groups.

n For Korea, whether large TOT gains translate into broader growth will likely

depend on FX and fiscal policy. The KRW has recently weakened despite large

TOT gains, contrary to the cross-country stylized facts. Given the strong FX

passthrough to inflation in Korea, the drag from a weaker KRW on consumers’

purchasing power and domestic firms’ profit margins, and the diminished export

boost from KRW depreciation due to structural changes, sustained KRW