Energy Speedbump

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Speedbump

Economics Research

10 July 2026 | 8:15PM BST

GLOBAL RATES TRADER

AI issuance and capex remain the structural focus for markets, but oil reemerged as George Cole

+44(20)7552-1214 |

the main driver of rates volatility this week. Long-end valuations are no longer rich in george.cole@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

the US, and the investment backdrop should be a factor keeping yields higher, but

William Marshallthere’s little to suggest meaningful risk premium versus what macro and fiscal +1(212)357-0413 |

fundamentals imply. Near-term oil dynamics will likely dictate asymmetry around william.c.marshall@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC

CPI, but our economists’ benign expectations for the print can allow front-end risks Simon Freycenet

to compress. The sell-off in European and UK front-end rates is a reminder that +44(20)7774-5017simon.freycenet@gs.com|

stalling on the progress of disinflation presents some risk for long positioning. We GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

think that ECB pricing will oscillate around one hike, and prefer 1y1y for longs on the Isabella Rosenberg

curve. In the UK, despite the risks to the front-end we continue to think the 2s10s +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com

curve will steepen in coming months. Greater GPIF demand could support JGBs from Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

an NIIP perspective, but would likely fall short of addressing the underlying macro Friedrich Schaper

+1(917)343-3214 |

disequilibrium that has fueled JGB volatility this year. friedrich.schaper@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Loic Mathys

United States and Canada +44(20)7051-1664loic.mathys@gs.com|

n Recent rate vol more oil than issuance. Renewed escalation of the US-Iran

conflict at least temporarily restored energy as the common global factor for