AEJ Week Ahead: China Q2 GDP and activity data, BoK meeting, India CPI, Q2 GDP in Singapore and Malaysia

Research evidence excerpt

AEJ Week Ahead: China Q2 GDP and activity data, BoK meeting, India CPI, Q2 GDP in Singapore and Malaysia

Goldman Sachs AEJ Week Ahead

trends point to the diminishing effectiveness of the ongoing consumer goods

trade-in program. We maintain our forecast that real GDP growth will likely slow to

4.5% yoy in Q2 from 5.0% yoy in Q1, with sequential growth falling to 3.5% qoq

annualized from 5.3% qoq annualized in Q1, due to the global energy-supply shock,

slower government spending, and adverse weather conditions.

South Korea

n BOK meeting (July 16): We expect the BOK’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to

raise the policy rate by 25bp to 2.75% at its July meeting, in line with the Bloomberg

consensus at the time of writing. Markets will be closely watching the Governor’s

post-meeting press conference for possible guidance on the pace and extent of

future policy rate hikes, given that the official MPC statement will not provide an

updated dot-plot at this meeting. In May, the median dot suggested two 25bp hikes

over the next six months, dovish relative to current market pricing and in line with

our forecast. Markets will also be closely examining the BOK’s latest assessment of

macro conditions and the outlook, with sustained strength in exports contrasting

with an uneven recovery in domestic demand, and a meaningful decline in global

crude oil prices pointing to lower supply-side inflation pressures. It will also be

important to focus on the MPC’s latest views on financial stability concerns, given

continued increases in housing prices and elevated USDKRW amid equity market

volatility. Updated views on a longer-term macro outlook against the backdrop of

the government’s latest investment drive could provide hints on longer-term policy

rates.

India