Upcoming EU ETS review: What matters for Cement

Research evidence excerpt

Upcoming EU ETS review: What matters for Cement

Equity Research

10 July 2026 | 8:57PM BST

EUROPE HEAVYSIDE MATERIALS

On Friday the 17th of July, the European Commission is releasing its review of the Ben Rada Martin

+44(20)7051-0800 |

2030+ rules of the Emissions Trading System (ETS - Europe’s “cap-and-trade” market ben.radamartin@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

where companies pay to pollute), with media reports (Bloomberg, Reuters) pointing

Natasha Phillipsto several potential reforms. Overall for Heidelberg and Holcim, where we believe the +44(20)7051-4705 |

equity stories are based on their decarb cost advantage, we see 3 debates that natasha.phillips@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

matter, with 2 skewing positive and 1 skewing negative. We believe the update could Patrick Creuset

be meaningful for the stocks but relatively long term in their implications (2030+). +33(1)4212-1380patrick.creuset@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

1. Additional allowances conditional on decarbonisation (positive): The EU could Branch

look to give additional allowances to industry players conditional on decarb

progress, inviting a range of suggestions on how this could be structured (emissions

reduction / capex spend / transition plans). GS view: Positive for HEIG/HOLN if

support is linked to decarb investment or progress.

2. Weakening of ETS supply/demand beyond 2030 (negative): The EU could look

to soften 2030+ supply/demand of carbon through: (i) lowering the Linear Reduction

factor beyond 2030, which would drive more supply and slower CO2 price

appreciation, and (ii) more gradual phase out of allowances, which would see less

industry cost pressure, appear likely. GS view: Overall, we see both as incrementally