GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 10, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 10, 2026

Equity Research

10 July 2026 | 2:14PM EDT

Chris Hussey

+1(212)902-7564 |

chris.hussey@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Sarah Herr

+1(212)357-0094 | sarah.herr@gs.com

macro issues we’re watching

FX, HALO, Housing & the World Portfolio

n Kamakshya Trivedi no longer expects to see dollar weakness (versus the Euro)

over the next year as we bring our 12-month USD/EUR forecast down below

current pricing to 1.12 in “Global FX Trader: Halftime Adjustments.” But even as

the rate differential widens between the US and China, Xinquan Chen expects

USD/CNY to stay range-bound through the summer as interest from FX traders

and good traders holds the currency steady in “Resilient CNY amid Dollar

Strength, Low Rates amid Growth Weakness.” Rate differentials are also in focus

across the FX landscape, as Stuart Jenkins recommends leaning into FX carry

trades in “The G10 FX Carry Comeback.” We think carry bears more relevance for

G10 FX markets now than it has at virtually any other point since the year 2000,

and we continue to see value in carry strategies funded by G10 low-yielders (JPY,

CHF, EUR, CAD) in the months ahead. See also “Hungary — The Probability of

Euro Entry.”

n Guillaume Jaisson sees further opportunity to lean into Europe’s HALO stocks

(Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) as we enter a second phase of the trade —

one that should be increasingly driven by earnings, with greater dispersion

between winners and losers — as he details in “HALO Reloaded: From re-rating

to earnings.”

n US Housing demand remains tepid and Ronnie Walker lowers our residential

fixed investment (RFI) forecast further as we now expect a decline in RFI of 3.2%

in 2026, on top of the 3.8% decline we saw last year in “Mid-Year Housing