LATAM Today: July 10, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 10, 2026

Goldman Sachs LATAM Today

ex-ante rate reached the estimated neutral level prematurely, which does not

allow for further easing, and that the monetary policy stance is not strengthened

nor are its effects transmitted more strongly or more rapidly in the presence of weak

growth and slack conditions (the only factor that strengthens the monetary policy

stance is the improvement of inflation expectations which, along with more

favorable inflation dynamics, would create more room for additional monetary

easing). Absent a rapid slowdown of services inflation, the policy stance must

remain at its current level for an extended period.

Below we present an abstract of the views of the five directors and our labeling of their

policy inclination.

n Director 1: Dovish; The main determinants of inflation are still contributing to

mitigate inflationary pressures; e.g., MXN dynamics, “broad and widespread” slack

(leading to lower pass-through of cost pressures), and lagged-effects form a clearly

restrictive monetary policy stance in recent years. On a dovish take, the director

highlights that given the latest inflation readings and the evolving inflation

outlook, the forward guidance should indicate that maintaining the current

monetary policy stance “for some time” will continue supporting the

convergence of inflation to the 3% target.

n Director 2: Mildly Hawkish/Cautious. The director argued that despite the

progress in reaching an agreement in the Middle East the effects of this conflict will

take time to resolve and continue posing an upside risk to prices. For the director

services inflation remains one of the main challenges to achieving convergence

to the target, pointing to evidence that the services-inflation statistical mean may

have moved up.