Peru: MPC on Hold Again at 4.25%; Still Transitory Supply Shocks, Low Core Ex-Transport Inflation and Improving Balance of Risks

Research evidence excerpt

Peru: MPC on Hold Again at 4.25%; Still Transitory Supply Shocks, Low Core Ex-Transport Inflation and Improving Balance of Risks

Economics Research

10 July 2026 | 6:26AM EDT

Peru: MPC on Hold Again at 4.25%; Still Transitory Supply Shocks, Low

Core Ex-Transport Inflation and Improving Balance of Risks

BOTTOM LINE: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held the policy Santiago Tellez

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rate at 4.25%, in line with Bloomberg consensus. The forward-guidance remained santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

data-dependent and unchanged, with no indication about the next policy move. We

see the policy messaging as consistent with a hold for the foreseeable future, but

risks are slightly skewed towards a shallow hiking cycle under the materialization of

new upside risks.

The MPC dismissed the upside inflation surprise in June, judging that it was driven by

a few “anomalous” disruptions in food supply and noting that the monthly reading

(0.23%) is compatible with the inflation target band in annual terms. In another

innovation, the MPC argued that the deviations of in annual headline and core

inflation from the target have been mostly driven by higher energy prices and their

indirect effect on transport. By contrast, core inflation excluding food, energy and

transport has tracked consistently below the 2% target midpoint. The MPC still sees

the recent inflation drivers as mostly transitory supply shocks that will not derail the

convergence of inflation to the 2% target, which is still projected to take place by

end-2027. That said, the statement was updated to reflect that the materialization

of a stronger El Niño or renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could delay

this process.