Oil markets: Cutting forecasts: Mini-glut now, surplus later

Research evidence excerpt

Oil markets: Cutting forecasts: Mini-glut now, surplus later

8 July 2026

Oil markets EquitiesGlobal & Commodities

Cutting forecasts: Mini-glut now, surplus later

◆ We cut our Brent forecast to USD80/b for 2026 and USD65/b Kim Fustier*

thereafter on faster normalisation and return to surplus by 4Q Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

◆ Cyclical surplus of 3.7mbd in 2027, partly offset by inventory +44 20 3359 2136

refilling; higher than pre-crisis on stronger supply growth Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

HSBC Bank plc

◆ Assuming Gulf exports normalise by end-3Q, stocks may sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

return to Feb-26 levels by end-1Q27 and test new highs +44 207 9910569

Ildar Khaziev*, CFA

Senior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities Analyst

In this report, we cut our Brent price forecast to USD80/b for 2026 (from USD95/b) HSBC Bank plc

ildar.khaziev@hsbc.com

and to USD65/b for 2027 (from USD75/b), reverting to our pre-conflict long-term +44 20 7992 3302

anchor. The revision reflects a faster rebalancing of the oil market that began before Evan Li*

the US-Iran MoU and accelerated with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Our Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

base case assumes a return to normal Gulf exports by end-Sept., with Hormuz traffic The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

recovering to c80% of pre-conflict levels and bypass pipelines operating at full capacity. +852 2996 6619

The near-term is being shaped by a physical “mini-glut”: the release of stranded Gulf Lilyanna Yang, CFA

Analyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, Petrochems

barrels has outpaced the market’s ability to absorb them. We expect this overhang to HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.