Breaking the data: The billions of AI consumer surplus

Research evidence excerpt

Breaking the data: The billions of AI consumer surplus

9 July 2026

Breaking the data EconomicsUnited States

The billions of AI consumer surplus

◆ With free or cheap AI tools replacing some forms of James Pomeroy

existing spending… Global Economist HSBC Bank plc

james.pomeroy@hsbc.com

◆ …a large consumer surplus is emerging, with spending +44 20 7991 6714

dropping in some areas…

◆ …that could find a home in entertainment, clothing and

eating out

While much of focus on AI’s impact on the economy has been on corporate usage,

the labour market and corporate profits, including our own work (see:

Gamechangers: The macro impact of AI adoption going exponential, 20 April 2026),

there is an additional angle which could have profound implications.

Simply, the free nature of many personal-use AI tools is generating an enormous

consumer surplus, as many household purchases are avoided or time is saved.

A paper from Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab suggests that in early 2026, based on

surveys of users, the consumer surplus generated from AI in the US amounted to

roughly USD172bn, up from roughly USD116bn six months prior. With increasing

usage of these tools and more personal tasks coming into scope, we could see

generative AI lead to an even bigger consumer surplus in the coming years. Our back

of the envelope calculations suggest that this could reach USD250bn in 2027, which

is 0.8% of US GDP, or more meaningfully, 1.5% of US consumer spending.

These are not insignificant numbers – and the impact on the rest of the economy

could be substantial. Data suggests that AI usage on a personal basis is highest

amongst younger people – who are likely to reap more of that benefit by being more

likely to use AI for a wider range of tasks. PEW data suggests that 74% of American