Gas markets: Storage squeeze: Stocks, spreads, and stress

Research evidence excerpt

Gas markets: Storage squeeze: Stocks, spreads, and stress

10 July 2026

Equities & Commodities

Global Gas markets

Storage squeeze: Stocks, spreads, and stress

◆ European gas inventories to reach just 72% by 1 November Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

◆ Backwardated TTF curve weakens refill incentives HSBC Bank plc

sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

◆ Weather related demand and LNG supply weigh on the outlook +44 207 9910569

Kim Fustier*

Gas inventories to reach just 72%: We now expect European gas inventories to Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst HSBC Bank plc

reach a fill level of 72% by 1 November, down from our previous 82% assumption kim.fustier@hsbc.com

and below the 80% policy target. Europe started the refill season (1 April) at 28%, the +44 20 3359 2136

lowest since 2022, and injection rates so far have not compensated for the low Charles Swabey*

Global Utilities & Renewables Analyst

starting point. Average daily injections have been 0.25bcm, 14% below last year and HSBC Bank plc

7% below the five-year average. Storage is currently 51% full (as of 8 July), 10ppts charles.swabey@hsbc.com

+44 20 3268 3954

lower than the same time last year and 15ppts below the five-year average.

Ujjwal Sharma*

Incentives weak as curve remains backwardated: The key drag has been poor Associate

Bangalore

storage economics. TTF seasonal spreads have been flat to negative since April, limiting

the incentive to buy summer gas and store it for winter. Elevated prices linked to the

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

Middle East conflict have pushed the curve into backwardation, undermining the not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.

commercial case for refilling. With roughly half the refill season already gone, there are