June Employment: A Modest Rise

Research evidence excerpt

June Employment: A Modest Rise

Update

July 10, 2026 05:58 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMCanada Economics | North America Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

June Employment: A Modest Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.comMayank Phadke, CFA +1 212 761-4125

Economist

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

Rise

Bottom Line: The June report extends the stabilization in Canadian labor-market

conditions, but the underlying signal remains mixed. Employment growth was

modest, entirely part-time and concentrated in services, while goods-producing

employment weakened sharply. Some of the strength in accommodation and food

services may reflect temporary World Cup-related hiring. More importantly, slower

population and labor-force growth are helping the unemployment rate decline even

in the absence of strong labor demand. The report therefore supports a stabilization

narrative, not a renewed labor-market upswing, and provides little reason for the

Bank of Canada to change course.

The June labor Force Survey was consistent with a Canadian labor market that

has stabilized after a weak start to the year, but has not entered a sustained

upswing. Employment increased 18.2k after the outsized 87.8k gain in May, while

the unemployment rate edged down to 6.5%. Participation remained close to 65.0%,

and the employment-population ratio was broadly unchanged at 60.8%.

Employment has increased 88.3k over the past three months, but remains 6.3k

below its level six months ago.

The composition was softer than the headline. Full-time employment was

essentially unchanged (+0.6k), while part-time employment accounted for nearly all

of the gain (+17.5k). Goods-producing employment fell sharply (-43.7k), more than

reversing May’s increase, while services employment rose 61.8k. Manufacturing (-