Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY.N): Pre-Earnings Thoughts and Model Revision

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Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY.N): Pre-Earnings Thoughts and Model Revision

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10 Jul 2026 10:35:29 ET │ 12 pages

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY.N)

Pre-Earnings Thoughts and Model Revision

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral We update our model with revised estimates into earnings, resulting in

discretionary cash flow of ~$331mm vs VA consensus for ~$320mm with Price (09 Jul 26 16:00) US$25.87

the difference predominantly driven by our slightly higher pricing Target price US$29.00↓

assumptions. We model production growth of ~2.7% QoQ (~4.7% in from US$32.00

natural gas) with pricing coming in slightly tighter to MEH with capital Expected share price return 12.1%

spending down slightly on the quarter (but at the top end of the range). We Expected dividend yield 1.9%

expect their ground game M&A in Giddings to have held the recent trend

Expected total return 14.0% with moderate activity, and we anticipate strong interest on the call in

Market Cap US$4,785M larger-scale M&A given recent news flow. Otherwise, we see the call

focusing on their operational cadence through the year given recent macro

volatility - any shift in their strategy would be heavily scrutinized. We

maintain our Neutral rating with a reduced target price of $29/share given Paul DiamondAC

recent pricing volatility and macro uncertainty. +1-212-816-0638

paul.diamond@citi.com

Updates — We update our model to incorporate: 1) production rising QoQ in line Scott Gruber

with their single-digit growth trajectory and totaling ~105.3k boe/d with oil at +1-212-816-8919

~41.4k bbls/d, both of which are in line with consensus estimates; 2) capital scott.gruber@citi.com

spending rising towards the top end of the range and totaling ~$124.7mm vs

consensus for ~$121.3mm - a slight reduction QoQ; 3) minor adjustments to