Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Brazil Beer IPCA June-26: Beer Prices Tracking Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Ambev (ABEV3.SA): Brazil Beer IPCA June-26: Beer Prices Tracking Inflation

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10 Jul 2026 10:53:32 ET │ 11 pages

Ambev (ABEV3.SA)

Brazil Beer IPCA June-26: Beer Prices Tracking Inflation

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral June IPCA reinforced the message already signaled by recent inflation

releases (link): beer pricing in Brazil remains broadly aligned with inflation, Price (09 Jul 26 18:00) R$15.72

highlighting the industry’s greater focus on volumes. Beer inflation stood Target price R$16.50

at +4.5%YoY in June, tracking headline IPCA at +4.6%YoY, bringing the Expected share price return 5.0%

pricing gap to -12bps (vs. +4bps in May and -18bps in Apr-26). On a Expected dividend yield 6.0%

monthly basis, beer prices declined -0.1%MoM, below headline inflation, Expected total return 10.9%

implying a -25 bps gap. Additionally, at-home channel (+5.3%YoY)

Market Cap R$247,805M continued to support beer pricing, while out-of-home beer inflation

US$47,945M remained softer at +3.4%YoY. Overall, we continue to see the industry

prioritizing an affordable-first strategy over price extraction, which we

view positively, especially as pricing discipline held during June’s global

football tournament, a period that typically supports consumption Renata CabralAC

occasions and alcoholic beverage demand (see our report for more +55-11-4009-7561

details). renata.cabral@citi.com

Luis Felipe Terzariol

Out-of-Home Still More Affordable. The softer pricing environment was once again +55-11-4009-3564

driven by out-of-home. Beer inflation in bars and restaurants printed +3.4%YoY, luis.terzariol@citi.com

~120bps below headline IPCA, while at-home reached +5.3%YoY (vs. +6.0% in May-

26).

Middle East Volatility Lingers. Following a period of de-escalation in the Middle