Ambev (ABEV3.SA) 2Q26 Preview: Recovery Set to Gain Traction

Research evidence excerpt

Ambev (ABEV3.SA) 2Q26 Preview: Recovery Set to Gain Traction

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05 Jul 2026 22:40:40 ET │ 14 pages

Ambev (ABEV3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: Recovery Set to Gain Traction

CITI’S TAKE

We expect 2Q26 to mark another step toward a more constructive

Neutral operating backdrop for Ambev. Brazil Beer volumes should return to

Price (03 Jul 26 18:00) R$16.29 healthy growth, supported by exceptionally easy June comparisons and

the global football tournament. That said, our Weather Tracker suggests Target price R$16.50

climate conditions were broadly neutral versus last year, rather than the Expected share price return 1.3%

meaningful tailwind many had anticipated (see report link), while Expected dividend yield 5.8%

consumer fundamentals remain relatively soft. As a result, we forecast Expected total return 7.1%

Brazil Beer volumes up 5.8% YoY, which we view as a healthy recovery that Market Cap R$256,790M

strikes the right balance between improving industry trends and still-

US$49,683M modest consumer fundamentals. We expect consolidated EBITDA to grow

3.6% YoY, driven by a stronger Brazil Beer performance and gradually

improving profitability across most businesses, while cost should

continue to ease into 2H26. Trading at 16x 2026E P/E, we maintain our Renata CabralAC

Neutral rating, recognizing that the operating backdrop is becoming +55-11-4009-7561

increasingly constructive should volume recovery prove sustainable. renata.cabral@citi.com

Luis Felipe Terzariol

Brazil Beer: Healthy Recovery Despite Limited Tailwinds — We continue to expect a +55-11-4009-3564

healthy recovery, even without the weather tailwind many had anticipated. luis.terzariol@citi.com

Temperatures were only 0.3°C below last year, leaving weather broadly neutral for the