Asia – Macro Catalysts: China‘s 2Q GDP and June Datapack; BOK to Hike

Research evidence excerpt

Asia – Macro Catalysts: China‘s 2Q GDP and June Datapack; BOK to Hike

Idea

July 10, 2026 03:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MAsia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economist

Asia – Macro Catalysts: China's Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +65 6834-8272

Robin Xing

Chief China Economist2Q GDP and June Datapack; Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+BOK to Hike Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

We expect a slowdown in China's 2Q GDP growth (4.4% YoY vs. Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5404

5.0% in 1Q) due to weaker investment. China's June activity data Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Upasana Chachra

will likely show strong production, while investment and Chief India Economist

consumption remain soft. BOK is expected to deliver the first Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246

hike in this cycle at its July 16 meeting. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

Key Takeaways Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7340

We provide a list of macro catalysts across Asia for July 13-19. Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Chris Read

We expect a marked slowdown in China's 2Q GDP growth led by weaker Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

investment, cushioned by robust exports and stable service consumption. Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

We expect China's industrial production to edge up to 5.2% YoY in June (vs. 4.5% Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Jonathan Cheung

YoY in May). But FAI and retail sales will likely remain sluggish. Economist

Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652

China's exports will continue to be strong at 18% YoY in June. Export prices

Kelly Wang