Mounjaro+Zepbound Script Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Mounjaro+Zepbound Script Tracker

UpdateMweek ending 2/20. LLY noted on 4Q EPS that they are very encouraged by what

they see with oral Wegovy (i.e., mostly new starts) and it validates their view that

orals will expand the market. See Exhibit 4 within for our launch sensitivity

analysis. Oral Wegovy represents ~13.1% of total GLP-1 volumes for obesity.

Separately, outside the U.S., Novo launched oral Wegovy in the UAE on 06/03/2026

(LINK), with UK approval following on 06/11/2026 (LINK).

Our sensitivity analysis assesses the TRx volumes Foundayo would need to

achieve to reach VA consensus U.S. sales of ~$1.1bn in 2026. For this analysis we

assume a net price of ~$280/month, which is what we model for the year. Our

assumptions also incorporate oral Wegovy trends adjusted for data not captured by

IQVIA relative to reported data (see above), and our projected assumptions assume

Novo/LLY oral market share reaches 50%/50% share within ~16 weeks

post‑Foundayo launch. Under these assumptions, Foundayo TRx would need to

ramp to volumes above recent GLP‑1 launches (e.g., Zepbound autoinjector/vial) -

see Exhibit 2 . This translates to Foundayo TRx of ~3.7mn (or ~102k/week).

For oral Wegovy, consensus U.S. sales of $2.3bn (we believe mostly US) would

require ~8.6mn TRx (~109k/week) at an assumed net price of $263/month (see

Exhibit 3 ), which is the blended price assumed by our EU team. Per Novo, IQVIA

data will not have all the channels for oral Wegovy, and will miss scripts from some

cash channels at the beginning of the launch.

On 5/28/26, LLY announced that all three major PBMs now provide coverage

across the company’s obesity portfolio, including CVS/Caremark initiating

coverage of Foundayo beginning June 1 and resuming broader Zepbound