Trial Holdings (141A.T): June sales: Trial same-store sales up a somewhat-underwhelming +1.6% YoY

Research evidence excerpt

Trial Holdings (141A.T): June sales: Trial same-store sales up a somewhat-underwhelming +1.6% YoY

Trial Holdings (141A.T)

10 July 2026 Citi Research

Trial Holdings

Valuation

Our target price of ¥4,300 is equivalent to an adjusted FY6/28E EV/EBITDA of 10x. An EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x is in line with

the industry average. Our projected OP CAGR for F6/26-FY6/29 is 22%, which significantly exceeds the industry average of

10%. However, as Trial explained when announcing Q3 results that gross margin improvement is lagging its internal plan,

forecasts, and the potential for improvement could be slowed by the situation in the Middle East, we set our valuation multiple

on par with the industry average.

Risks

This stock is High Risk based on our quantitative model and there was volatility immediately after the IPO, but thereafter no

significant difference from the sector median was observed. We think volatility will continue to diminish from here as the market

better understands the company’s business model, so we do not think a High Risk rating is justified.

Upside risks to our target price include 1) higher sales driven by improved consumer sentiment, 2) an improvement in

procurement costs fueled by yen appreciation and sales growth, 3) a greater-than-projected improvement in the GPM, and 4)

progress in retail AI in the finance business. Downside risks to our target price include 1) lower sales driven by a decline in

consumer sentiment or price hikes, 2) a deterioration in procurement costs fueled by yen depreciation or negotiations with

suppliers, and 3) excessive investment in retail AI or other businesses. If these factors vary significantly from our expectations,

the share price could diverge from our target price.