ONEOK Inc. (OKE): 2Q26 Preview: Supportive Spreads, but Lower 2H+ Growth

Research evidence excerpt

ONEOK Inc. (OKE): 2Q26 Preview: Supportive Spreads, but Lower 2H+ Growth

Goldman Sachs ONEOK Inc. (OKE)

inflation, and lower opex. All basins should benefit from 1Q weather impact recovery

in addition to underlying growth, though we expect modest sustained winter

weather impacts in the Bakken to somewhat offset. Our estimate slightly decreases

vs. our prior forecast on lower Bakken performance (more weather downtime

assumptions vs. prior) and refreshing for M2M commodity prices.

n NGLs likely up QoQ. We expect NGLs EBITDA of $709m vs 1Q26 of $706m and

higher than our prior estimate of $687m. We expect sequential growth across the

Permian and Mid-Con - NGL volumes should be higher following weather impacts in

1Q26. We see flatter Bakken margin with similar rates and seasonal upside offset by

a modest decline in Bakken volumes QoQ as KMI’s Double H pipeline converts into

NGL service and pulls volume off of OKE’s system.

n Gas Pipelines likely down QoQ. We expect Gas Pipelines EBITDA of $298m vs 1Q26

of $339m and above our prior estimate ($273m). We continue to expect segment

strength on optimization benefits from Waha price weakness offset by typical

seasonal weakness (lower volumes and rates). We increase our estimate vs. prior for

wider mark-to-market Waha spreads.

n Refined Products and Crude likely up QoQ. We expect Refined Products and Crude

EBITDA of $625m vs 1Q26 of $492m and lower than our prior estimate of $643m.

Sequential growth is largely driven by higher products margin (OKE generally

benefits from higher priced butane sales in 2Q). Our estimate decreased vs. prior on

lower affiliate EBITDA contributions following a write off of assets in 1Q26, offsetting

higher M2M commodity prices and wider spreads.

Key Focus Areas