Japan Economic Flash: May Data Roundup: Raising Our Q2 Real GDP Tracking Estimate to +0.5% QoQ Annualized

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Japan Economic Flash: May Data Roundup: Raising Our Q2 Real GDP Tracking Estimate to +0.5% QoQ Annualized

Economics Research

10 July 2026 | 2:02PM JST

Japan Economic Flash: May Data Roundup: Raising Our Q2 Real GDP

Tracking Estimate to +0.5% QoQ Annualized

n We raise our 2026Q2 (April-June) real GDP tracking estimate to +0.5% qoq Yuriko Tanaka

+81(3)4587-9964 |

annualized, from +0.1% previously. Among the main components of domestic yuriko.tanaka@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

final private demand, we revise up private consumption, partly driven by a

Akira Otani

special factor in the form of durable goods purchases. However, we revise down +81(3)4587-9960 | akira.otani@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

capex due to the postponement of some investments amid uncertainty over the Tomohiro Ota

Middle East situation, and implementation delays caused by supply disruptions +81(3)4587-9984 | tomohiro.ota@gs.com

related to the Middle East. We look for a positive contribution from external Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

demand, reflecting a slight upward revision to exports and a downward revision

to imports on the back of weak April data.

n Looking at economic activity in May, industrial production increased for the

second consecutive month. Production turned up mainly for chemicals and

petroleum products. Real exports also turned up. Real imports turned positive

for the first time in three months, but did not retrace the declines in March-April.

Consumption-related indicators showed high levels of spending on durable

goods in April-May, partly due to a one-off factor, while services consumption

also remained on a moderate uptrend.

n The roadmap for the “Growth Strategy” policy advocated by the Takaichi