Week Ahead in Latin America | Latin America: Mexico and Argentina: Notes from our London meetings

Research evidence excerpt

Week Ahead in Latin America | Latin America: Mexico and Argentina: Notes from our London meetings

Idea

July 10, 2026 07:43 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MWeek Ahead in Latin America | Latin America Fernando D Sedano

Chief LatAm Ex-Brazil Economist

Mexico and Argentina: Notes Fernando.Sedano@morganstanley.comJulia Lobato Barbosa +55 11 3048-6605

Economist

Julia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6016

from our London meetings Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Nicolas Eterovic

This week, we share our debates with our London clients on Economist

Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1245

Argentina and Mexico, two macro narratives that show stark

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

contrasts. Next week focus on Argentina CPI, high-frequency Ana Madeira

activity data for Brazil and Peru unemployment rate. Economist

Ana.Madeira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9582

Argentina and Mexico in focus… Our Exhibit 1: The pace of export-related Thiago A. Machado, CFA

London meetings confirmed the overall proceeds in 2026 are below historical Thiago.Machado@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6249

weak sentiment towards Mexico and open patterns...

a debate around our constructive 8000 2025

Argentina view. In Mexico, clients broadly 70006000 Average2026 2021 - 2025

agree with our cautious growth outlook, millions 50004000

as prolonged USMCA uncertainty, weak USD 3000

private investment, limited fiscal space, 20001000

and questions around PPPs continue to 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

weigh on activity. Investors also focused Source: CIARA-CEC, Morgan Stanley LatAm Economics

on the shift from autos to IT/hardware

exports and whether AI-related trade can generate meaningful domestic spillovers. In