Venture Global (VG): 2Q26 Preview: Revising Quarter Lower on Timing, Still Above Consensus; Watching Steps on Path to 85 mtpa

Research evidence excerpt

Venture Global (VG): 2Q26 Preview: Revising Quarter Lower on Timing, Still Above Consensus; Watching Steps on Path to 85 mtpa

Goldman Sachs Venture Global (VG)

the Plaq bolt-on, 29 mtpa at CP2, and a 10 mtpa CP2 bolt-on expansion. We will

look for continued momentum in the coming months to support commercialization

of the next brownfield expansions.

n Watching Plaq COD in 4Q26. Venture Global ramped production across Plaq phases

1 and 2 from Dec 2024-December 2025 and has been concurrently commissioning

the facility. The company continues to guide to the commercial operations date (the

date at which the commercial contracts tied to the project kick on) in 4Q26 for

phase 1 (~13mtpa of contracts) and mid-2027 for phase 2 (~7mtpa of contracts).

Our model now contemplates a Nov 1, 2026 commercial operations date (vs Oct 1

prior) on phase 1. We will continue to monitor details for specific COD timing,

particularly given impacts to spot margin exposure for the balance of the year.

n Watching details on funding plans and future capital allocation framework.

Following the recent $1.5b debt raise on the LNG ships, we expect funding levers to

execute the path to 85 mtpa to be a focus. Management has previously noted that

traditional asset-level financing, parent debt, and cash flow from operations are key

levers (we still acknowledge a meaningful wedge of that last component remains

price dependent). Looking forward, while we do not expect an update this quarter,

we note management highlighted on our post 1Q26 earnings callback that they

expect to share a more formal framework around debt paydown, share buybacks,

and dividend growth by the end of next year.

n Opex and capex execution - looking for excess capacity to support per-unit

economics.