2Q26 Results – better than expected underlying profitability

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Results – better than expected underlying profitability

Update

July 10, 2026 06:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MTryg A/S | Europe Daniel Wilson-Omordia

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Results – better than Daniel.Wilson-Omordia@morganstanley.comHadley Cohen +44 20 7677-3618

Hadley.Cohen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3289

expected underlying Alexa Psillos, FASSA

Research Associate

Alexa.Psillos@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2384

profitability

Tryg A/S (TRYG.CO, TRYG DC)

Insurance | Denmark

Reaction to earnings

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Industry View In-Line

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target DKr 165.00

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 8, 2026) DKr 152.80

52-Week Range DKr 170.60- 146.50

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) DKr 92,222

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* DKr 12,863

Tryg 2Q26 numbers came in better than expected with a 20% net profit beat driven EV, curr (mn)* DKr 106,114

by higher investment returns, better than expected improvement in the underlying * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

claims ratio, partially offset by worse large claims. The main focus today is likely to

be how the underlying claims ratio improvement has accelerated and if this is

sustainable. We'd expect a positive reaction in the shares this morning.

More details:

Insurance revenue was DKK 10.6bn, +3% yoy in constant ccy. Within this, Private

grew 5% yoy in constant ccy, supported by momentum in Sweden and Norway, and

Commercial shrank 0.5% yoy, impacted by churn at Jan 1 renewals earning through.

Management has commented that it expects topline growth of 3% in 2026 but

expects growth to be higher in 2027 - we seek further clarity on the call.