2Q26 Preview: Tight refining market supports positive earnings revisions; Buy Helleniq

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Tight refining market supports positive earnings revisions; Buy Helleniq

Equity Research

9 July 2026 | 8:47PM BST

GREEK REFINERS

2Q26 Preview: Tight refining market supports positive earnings

revisions; Buy Helleniq

We expect 2Q26 results to benefit from exceptionally strong middle-distillate Yulia Bocharnikova

+44(20)7051-6299 |

markets, with diesel and jet cracks averaging c.$50-60/bbl during the quarter. yulia.bocharnikova@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

This is partially offset by a sharp deterioration in crude economics, as feedstock

Michele Della Vigna, CFAdifferentials moved from a $2-3/bbl discount to Brent in 1Q26 to a $5-7/bbl +39(02)8022-2242 |

premium in 2Q26, on our estimates. Both Helleniq and Motor Oil successfully michele.dellavigna@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

adapted crude sourcing following the loss of Iraqi barrels. We forecast 2Q26 Adj. branch

Anastasia ShalaevaEBITDA of €357mn for Helleniq (+22% qoq) and €380mn for Motor Oil (flat qoq). +971(4)214-9908 |

Operationally, we expect Helleniq’s volumes to recover following the completion of anastasia.shalaeva@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

the Aspropyrgos refinery maintenance, while Motor Oil should continue operating Quentin Marbach

near full utilization. +44(20)7774-7644 | quentin.marbach@gs.com

European refining margins remain exceptionally strong at >$30/bbl vs $7/bbl Will Chen

mid-cycle average. Product cracks continued to strengthen in June-July, while +971(4)214-9942 | will.y.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

crude discounts widened materially. European benchmark refining margins are

currently above $30/bbl versus a mid-cycle average of c.$7/bbl, supported by

Middle East and Russian supply disruptions, low product inventories, robust seasonal