What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: US-Iran re-escalation, AI market/macro impacts, more Yen weakness

Research evidence excerpt

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: US-Iran re-escalation, AI market/macro impacts, more Yen weakness

Economics Research

9 July 2026 | 12:01PM EDT

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: US-Iran re-escalation, AI

market/macro impacts, more Yen weakness

This week: Jenny Grimberg

+1(212)934-0199 |

jenny.grimberg@gs.com

n US-Iran: a re-escalation Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Allison Nathan

n AI: continued market impacts, but not yet significant macro impacts +1(212)357-7504 |

allison.nathan@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCn More Yen weakness ahead, Andy Burnham’s economic priorities, global crop

Ashley Rhodes prices +1(212)934-4876 |

ashley.rhodes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Transcript

US-Iran: a re-escalation

This week’s re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict led to a decline in oil flows from the

Persian Gulf and rise in oil prices, and we see two-sided risks to near-term flows and

prices depending on how the conflict evolves. The negative supply news from the

Gulf comes alongside a sharp rise in Russian refinery outages as Ukrainian drone

attacks have accelerated, supporting our view that refined product margins and, in

turn, prices will remain higher for longer.

AI: continued market impacts, but not yet significant macro impacts

While the US-Iran developments have dominated markets this week, AI continues to

impact equities, with the AI trade a major driver of recent US small-cap strength as

well as the HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) theme, and we expect this

overarching dynamic to persist as the AI investment boom shows no signs of slowing.

We also expect the AI boom, together with global energy dynamics, to continue

impacting the Dollar. Specifically, we think these forces should support the “divided

Dollar” theme ahead, with the Dollar likely to further rise vs.