MiniMax Group (0100.HK): Key focuses post-share unlock; upside skew to risk-reward; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

MiniMax Group (0100.HK): Key focuses post-share unlock; upside skew to risk-reward; Buy

tioned in the favored ARR maximizing quadrant

(at attractive pricing + high token volumes), we believe the next path for MiniMax’s

overall positioning uplift vs. peers will hinge on improving pricing power from its H3

video-generation model/M3.1/M3 larger parameter models and also potentially its

financial strength. The company has already announced its plan for an A-share listing.

4) Lock-up period ended; a gradual removal of an overhang with Southbound

Connect/improving model performance over 2H 2026: Compared with Zhipu where

its Pre-IPO investor lock-up lasts 12 months till Jan 2027 (which we believe has created a

significant imbalance in share supply-demand vs. the strong GLM5.2 model

performance), we think MiniMax’s share price underperformance vs. Zhipu can be partly

attributed to investor concerns on the shorter lock-up expiry period. However, the

lock-up period has now expired as of July 9, and therefore we think the overhang has

been removed and investors will focus more on MiniMax’s fundamentally-driven story

from 2H 2026, on the back of new model launches.

We note MiniMax will be eligible for Southbound Connect from Aug 2026. With the

upcoming Southbound Connect and multiple model launches to drive 2H 2026

performance, we believe risk-reward is skewed to the upside at its current US$12bn

market cap (vs. Knowledge Atlas/Zhipu’s market cap of US$120bn and video-generation

model Kling’s latest funding implying US$18bn post-money, report), given M3

foundation model’s position in one of the favored ARR quadrants and its upcoming H3

multi-modal generation model launch.

We continue to see MiniMax as well positioned amongst Chinese AI model companies to