Mexico MPC Minutes: Rate Cuts? Not Now, But Perhaps Later (Ramos)

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico MPC Minutes: Rate Cuts? Not Now, But Perhaps Later (Ramos)

Economics Research

9 July 2026 | 1:33PM EDT

Bottom-Line: The minutes from the June 25 MPC meeting (unanimous hold at 6.50%) Alberto Ramos

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have a slightly dovish tilt. Three of the five directors have a dovish view on the inflation alberto.ramos@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

outlook given their assessment of the drivers of inflation (weak activity, ample slack, well

anchored MXN, fading impact from recent supply-shocks) and while not openly arguing in

favor of additional near-term rate cuts, in our assessment the bar for a pivot in the direction

of further easing does not seem particularly high. In fact, one of the directors argued that

the current policy rate is still relatively high and another went as far as adding a (short)

time-stamp to the forward guidance by stressing that given recent inflation readings and

the evolving inflation outlook, maintaining the current monetary policy stance “for some

time” should continue supporting the convergence of inflation to the target. On the

hawkish camp, one director points to the stickiness of services inflation (and shift to a

higher statistical distribution average) as one of the main challenges to achieving

convergence to the target and argued that the monetary stance needs to remain robust to

support the anchoring of expectations. The most hawkish of views are likely from director

Jonathan Heath, who argues that the real ex-ante rate reached the neutral level

prematurely, which does not allow for further easing. Furthermore, for the director, the only

factor that strengthens the monetary policy stance is the improvement of inflation

expectations (not weak growth and slack conditions), which, along with more favorable