Brazil Energy: First take: Government extends oil export taxes of 12% for additional two months

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Energy: First take: Government extends oil export taxes of 12% for additional two months

Equity Research

9 July 2026 | 3:06PM BRT

Brazil Energy: First take: Government extends oil export taxes of 12% for

additional two months

According to news flow, the Brazilian government has extended its 12% export Bruno Amorim, CFA

+55(11)3371-0764 |

tax on crude oil for an additional two months, maintaining the current tax on bruno.amorim@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

international petroleum shipments. The measure was implemented in March through

Guilherme Costa Martins

a Provisional Measure in response to global oil prices surging from the Middle East +55(11)3372-3505 |

conflict. Although the policy was set to expire today, the government will instead guilherme.costamartins@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

conduct a reevaluation of the measure in 30 days to decide whether to keep or alter Huama Belmonte

it. +55(11)3371-6972huama.belmonte@gs.com|

Initial news flow from last week proposed the possibility that the expiring measure

might be extended at a lower rate of 5% or 6%, from 12% currently. Conversely,

more recent news articles suggest the government would be willing to maintain the

surcharge at the current 12% for an extended period, particularly in light of recent

geopolitical escalations in the Middle East.

Implications for the equities in our coverage. As we had previously noted, PRIO

remains the most exposed to this measure in our coverage, with nearly 100% of its

production exported (GSe). BRAV and Petrobras follow with 40-50% exposure. If this

measure is extended, it could create downside risk to 3Q earnings consensus

estimates. Based on our recent interactions with investors, focus centered around i)