Restructuring kick off: right direction - implementation may be bumpy

Research evidence excerpt

Restructuring kick off: right direction - implementation may be bumpy

Update

July 10, 2026 05:15 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MVolkswagen | Europe Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan

Equity Analyst

Restructuring kick off: right Javier.Martinez.Olcoz@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +34 9141-81289

Shaqeal A Kirunda

Equity Analystdirection - implementation may Shaqeal.Kirunda@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0736

Matias Rodriguez Florez-Estrada

Research Associatebe bumpy

Matias.Rodriguez@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1091

VW released today the basics of its "Future Plan" to address Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE, VOW3 GY)

increasing competition from China OEMs globally. We think it is Autos & Shared Mobility | Germany

the right way to go, reducing capacity and cost, adding flexibility StockIndustryRatingView Equal-weightIn-Line

and speed to market, but the implementation may still be Price target €100.00

Shr price, close (Jul 9, 2026) €71.52

bumpy. 52-Week Range €109.15-69.20

Mkt cap, curr (mn) €35,853

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €(38,189)

Key Takeaways EV, curr (mn)* €16,302

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

"Future Plan" announced: targeting a reduction in capacity, cost and complexity

The right way to go: to reduce the competitiveness gap with China OEMs

Exhibit 1 : VW strategic challenges in one

Implementation may be bumpy: agreement with unions and government is key

chart: falling margins, too high investments

Positive for valuation: but EPS and cash impact will depend on the balance Auto Net CF CAPEX Capitalized development costs

€ mn Change in Working Capital M&A

between write offs and divestitures 40,000 Other/Eliminations Gross Industrial CF

Industrial Net Cash Flow

30,000