Venture Vision: Beyond The Mega-Deals

Research evidence excerpt

Venture Vision: Beyond The Mega-Deals

Foundation

July 10, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Thematics | North America Stephen C Byrd

Equity Analyst

Venture Vision: Beyond The Stephen.Byrd@morganstanley.comMichelle M. Weaver, CFA +1 212 761-3865

Equity Strategist

Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5254

Mega-Deals Anna Feldman

Anna.Feldman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3784

US venture capital markets have delivered strong headline

numbers in 1H26 while outliers and concentration across stages

and themes increased. We apply our thematic framework to

assess drivers of funding strength and momentum.

Key Takeaways

Mega-deals have accelerated a concentration trend where later stages capture a

higher portion of capital as the seed stage remains subdued.

Most of our themes exhibited above-median capital raises and valuations across

stages, with highest capital raised by AI Enablers, Physical AI and Defense.

Powering AI saw the highest increase in capital raised relative to the first half of

last year.

AI sub-themes differ in current revenue and valuation multiples, with agentic AI

enablers and applications seeing significantly higher revenue and multiples.

Overall venture funding, median deal sizes and valuations have been re-

bounding since 2023, with total capital raised in 2026 surpassing all annual

totals in the past decade despite a volatile macro backdrop within a rising yield

environment. The median pre-money valuation is more than double peak 2022

levels, though the median valuation/revenue multiple (18x) remains below 2023

levels (26x) and stable relative to last year.

Later stage mega-rounds have substantially sharpened the level of

concentration in 2025 and 2026, leading the later stage to capture 84% of total