Payments 2Q26 Preview: Expect strong spend volumes to help clear a low bar amid recent underperformance; Upgrade TOST to Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Payments 2Q26 Preview: Expect strong spend volumes to help clear a low bar amid recent underperformance; Upgrade TOST to Buy

Goldman Sachs Americas Payment Technology

which is accretive to ARPUs – see our bottom up location and ARPU build in this note,

Exhibit 2). On the earnings front, we believe TOST has multiple levers to sustain

operating leverage, including 1) a commitment to operating leverage in 2027 despite

memory cost headwinds, 2) an idiosyncratic tailwind to payments take rates as a result

of the proposed V/MA merchant settlement (~8% to TOST EBITDA, see next section

on litigation settlement analysis, Exhibit 7), and 3) broader pricing actions that can

sustain ARPU growth in both payments and software. Our Bluesky earnings analysis

(Exhibit 5) points to solid upside to Street 2028 estimates, resulting from core

operating leverage, take rate expansion, and stronger SaaS ARPU growth over time,

which, if achieved, would put the stock at <18x Bull case earnings.

Payments 2Q26 analysis pack

n Merchant litigation impacts beyond the card networks: With the long-running

Visa and Mastercard merchant litigation settlement receiving preliminary approval,

we look at the financial impacts for other payments companies in the coverage.

Overall, we see lower pass through costs benefiting the merchant acquirers,

primarily for SMB acquirers, and we see TOST as the biggest beneficiary with a

roughly 8% benefit to 2028 EBITDA. We would also call out GPN, XYZ, and FISV as

beneficiaries. On the negative side, we would expect negative impacts to issuers on

the consumer fintech side, with BILL most exposed and CHYM also feeling a roughly

1% impact to transaction profit, based on our estimates.

n PYPL segment dive: We spotlight our recently published Deep Dive on PayPal