Summer on Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Summer on Edge

Update

July 10, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plcMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Georgi Deyanov

Economist

Summer on Edge Georgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited +44 20 7425-7006

Andrea Masia

While the BOI kept easing on the back of FX strength, the NBP EconomistAndrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0820

and the CBE remained on hold as global uncertainty remains

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

elevated. Next week, we expect inflation for June to ease in Israel Yomna Moheieldin

and core inflation in Poland to tick down. EconomistYomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

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Poland | NBP remains on the sidelines: With the updated forecasts showing Recent Research Highlights

inflation remaining somewhat elevated for longer, the NBP kept rates unchanged at Poland: NBP Review: On the Sidelines

3.75%. We maintain our view for no change in the policy rate this year but still Israel: BOI Review: Uncertainties Remain

expect 50bp of cumulative easing in 2027. Higher oil prices create upside risks to South Africa: What to make of inflation

our forecast. expectations?

Egypt: CBE Preview: Continue to Hold

• The statement reiterated that further MPC decisions will depend on the

South Africa: 3Q26 Macro Slide Deck

outlook for inflation and economic activity in Poland, emphasizing that the

Hungary: NBH Review: Bucking the Hawkish

external macroeconomic environment will be particularly important.

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