Oil helps but discipline delivers: a narrow path to sustainability

Research evidence excerpt

Oil helps but discipline delivers: a narrow path to sustainability

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Gabon Viewpoint

Oil helps but discipline delivers: a narrow

path to sustainability

We now include analysis of Gabon economy in our Sub-Saharan Africa economics and 07 July 2026

strategy overview. We already cover the following economies: South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, GEM Economics

Kenya, Ghana, Zambia, Senegal, Ivory Coast. EEMEA | Gabon

Loic PorteIMF program likely in Q1 2027, but uncertainty remains Sub-Saharan Africa Economist

The timeline for the IMF program still looks uncertain: late Q4 at earliest, with Q1 2027 MLI (UK)

more likely in our view conditional on further fiscal adjustment. The immediate priority +44loic.porte@bofa.com20 7996 3011

for the government is to complete the debt audit, which is officially expected to be Raghav Adlakha

finalized in July. Substantive discussions on the IMF programme design are unlikely to EM Quant/Sovereign Strategist

begin until the audit is complete and there is agreement on the underlying debt MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 9019

numbers. Given its negative contribution to FX reserves in 2025, Gabon is the key raghav.adlakha@bofa.com

country to unlock IMF’s regional financing assurances for CEMAC. Tatonga Rusike

Sub-Saharan Africa Economist

Revised budget proposal: in the right direction… MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 8446

The appointment of the new minister of Finance marked a clear improvement in terms tatonga.rusike@bofa.com

of communication with rating agencies, the IMF, and market participants. On the fiscal EEMEA FI Strategy & Economics

side, the revised budget proposal is clearly moving in the right direction, with more MLI (UK)

realistic assumptions on growth, revenues and capital spending, in our view. GEMsBofAS FI Strategy & Economics