Slower-than-expected expansion in 1H, but SSSG on track with margin support

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Slower-than-expected expansion in 1H, but SSSG on track with margin support

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Guming

Slower-than-expected expansion in 1H, but

SSSG on track with margin support

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 30.00 HKD | Price: 21.64 HKD

Cut EPS and PO, but negatives largely priced in 09 July 2026 Corrected

We cut our 26/27E EPS by 2%/6% due to lower store openings. We also lower our PO by Equity

14% to HK$30 (based on a lower target multiple of 20x, vs. 23x previously). Our channel

checks suggest that Guming net added around 800 stores in 1H26, well below its full

Key Changesyear guidance of 3k+. We now estimate 2k net store adds for the full year. On a positive

note, we believe SSSG continued to be resilient in 1H26 at MSD%, and on track to reach (CNY) Previous Current

its guidance of flat full-year SSSG. We look for 35%/40%+ growth in revenue/adj core Price Obj. HK$35.00 HK$30.00

NPAT for 1H26. The stock has underperformed MXCN 15% since early-Feb and trades at 2026E EPS 1.34 1.30

14x 2026E P/E despite an 18% EPS CAGR, which looks undemanding. An easing SSSG 2027E EPS 1.65 1.54

base from Aug and continued self-help measures will support future SSSG. We reiterate 2028E EPS 1.92 1.80

Buy as Guming is set to outgrow competition as a share gainer, supported by its unique

blend of superior consumer experience and efficiency. Lucy Yu >>

Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

+65 6678 0417Decoding slower expansion lucy.yu@bofa.com

1) Company strategically focuses on upgrading rather than new store adds, thus

Chen Luo, CFA >>

prioritizing newly available locations for existing franchisees with relocation and upgrade Research Analyst

needs, 2) existing franchisees, which normally contribute the majority of new store Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +852 3508 2009