Commodity price update: Lowering forecasts as uncertainty lingers

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity price update: Lowering forecasts as uncertainty lingers

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Metals & Mining - India

Commodity price update: Lowering

forecasts as uncertainty lingers

Price Objective Change

Summertime blues for base and precious metals 08 July 2026

Our global commodities team is cutting price forecasts for most commodities (see: Equity

Global Metals Weekly: Spanner in the works). While hostilities in the Middle East have India

been subsiding, uncertainties could take time to flush out. As such, the team expects the Metals & Mining

backdrop to remain challenging into autumn, with the risk of tighter US monetary policy Equity Research

and a stronger USD not helping either. Key changes: 2026E aluminium -9% to Bharat Subramanian >>

US$3,292/t; 2027E aluminium -12% to US$3,813/t; 2026E silver -21% to US$68/oz; and ResearchBofAS IndiaAnalyst

2027E silver -6% to US$70/oz (see Exhibit 3 for key changes). As a result, we revise our +91 22 6632 8677

bharat.subramanian@bofa.com

earnings estimates and POs for the Indian non-ferrous companies (see Exhibit 2).

Commodity Research

HNDL: near-term pressure likely on lower Ali, however… MichaelCommodityWidmerStrategist

MLI (UK)

For HNDL, we cut our FY27E-28E EBITDA forecasts by 9% each and reduce our PO to michael.widmer@bofa.com

INR1,070/sh from INR1,215/sh, mainly reflecting lower aluminium price forecasts. Danica Averion

Aluminium has been under pressure from (i) rising production in China and Indonesia, (ii) Commodity Strategist

increased Middle Eastern supply, and (iii) smelter restarts in the US and Europe. As such, danica_ana.averion@bofa.com

the stock could remain under pressure in the near term, given HNDL’s share price

remains closely correlated with LME aluminium (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit 1: We cut our earnings, PO for