Air superiority, upgrading AENA to Buy

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Air superiority, upgrading AENA to Buy

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AENA

Rating Change: BUY | PO: 30.50 EUR | Price: 27.12 EUR

Growth is back on the radar, AENA upgrade to Buy 08 July 2026

We upgrade AENA to Buy (from Neutral) and raise our PO to €30.5/U$17.44 (from €25.5 Equity

/U$14.97) – 17% TSR potential (see p. 15 for explanation of our SOTP valuation). AENA

is a structurally attractive infra platform with unlimited-duration assets and low

Key Changesleverage, while Spain is the second-most visited country in the world, and >80% of

visitors arrive by plane. The group offers upside to traffic and Commercial revenue per (EUR) Previous Current

pax, while group guidance already reflects a cautious opex scenario. Regulatory visibility Inv. Opinion A-2-7 A-1-7

appears imminent and, in our view, partly offsets higher capex and lower FCF. AENA Inv. Rating NEUTRAL BUY

trades on 10.8x 27E EV/EBITDA, vs its pre-pandemic average of 11.5x. Divi yield is Price Obj. 25.50 30.50

4.85% in 27E. Catalysts: (1) Q2 results – 29 July, with a potential traffic guidance 2026E EPS 1.52 1.59

upgrade, (2) DORA3 publication (by Sep 2026), (3) Business Plan update (Q4). We raise 2027E EPS 1.53 1.65

EPS by 5-8% in 2026-28E, leaving us 3-4% above consensus. 2028E EPS 1.50 1.62

AENA is re-emerging as a traffic growth champion 2026E DPS 1.22 1.27

As geopolitical concerns fade and jet fuel prices normalise, visibility on airport traffic is Marcin Wojtal >>

improving. Importantly, seat capacity data imply 6.6% volume growth for AENA in H2’26, Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

ahead of its peers. Our H2 forecast is more conservative at +3.5%, but this still leaves +44 20 7996 1070

scope for an upgrade to AENA +1.3% traffic guidance for FY’26 (BofAe at: +3.6%). marcin.wojtal@bofa.com