Looking for more clarity alongside even stronger 2Q26 trading than expected

Research evidence excerpt

Looking for more clarity alongside even stronger 2Q26 trading than expected

Accessible version

Shell Plc

Looking for more clarity alongside even

stronger 2Q26 trading than expected

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 3,300 GBp | Price: 3,011 GBp

Key takeaways 08 July 2026

Equity• We raise our FY26 estimates reflecting Shell's stronger 2Q26 trading update. Remain

Neutral with unchanged 3,300p PO

• More rateable DPS upside to move into focus - assuming Shell avoids more unforced Key Changes

errors (such as 1Q26 buyback communication) (US$) Previous Current

• Echoing Shell's warning, we remain cautious on the industry's cash flow conversion of 2026E EPS 4.89 4.87

higher headline refining margins 2027E EPS 4.68 4.56

2028E EPS 4.90 4.76

2Q26 now even further ahead of consensus Christopher Kuplent >>

Stronger oil & gas trading results in 2Q26 push our updated estimates further ahead of Research Analyst

a still thin 2Q26 consensus: We now stand ~20% ahead on earnings and even further on MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 8222

CFFO. The reversal of net working cap flows will also help net debt drop back from the christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

~$53bn peak in 1Q26 toward $40bn after 2Q26 – cue more focus on cash returns: Matthew Smith >>

Research Analyst

More clarity on shareholder distribution shift mix? MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 7109

We believe Shell’s $0.5bn cut in its 2Q26 buyback confused more (by signalling caution) matt.smith1@bofa.com

than it symbolled counter-cyclical behaviour. We expect 3Q26 share buybacks to remain Cian Evans-Cowie >> Research Analyst

flat, but Shell’s 40% CFFO payout floor will in our view require more DPS growth (on top MLI (UK)

of +5% growth or ~$0.1bn per quarter alongside 1Q26 already). We believe investors will +44cian.evans-cowie@bofa.com20 7995 0940