Traffic Signals: June traffic increases vs May, above Q1 but below consensus

Research evidence excerpt

Traffic Signals: June traffic increases vs May, above Q1 but below consensus

according to Placer.ai. Interestingly, THC screens the strongest based on y/y foot traffic

growth and is above its consensus estimate, while UHS implies it will be well below

(however we caution that our data excludes main UHS markets in NV and CA).

Exhibit 6: The y/y changes in traffic are above cons vol ests for THC, below for HCA, ARDT and UHS

Q2 foot traffic growth according to Placer.ai vs consensus estimate for 2Q26 SS adj admits

6%

Foot traffic y/y growth - Placer.ai SS adj adm y/y growth - Consensus

4%

2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7%

2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1%

0%

-0.2%

-2% -1.1%

-4%

-6%

-8% -7.0%

HCA THC UHS ARDT Average

Source: Placer.ai, Visible Alpha

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Implied Q2 vols above consensus for THC and ARDT, below for HCA and UHS

Another way to use the data is to look at the sequential change in the foot traffic y/y

growth rate from Q1 to Q2 that the Placer.ai data suggests. On this basis, THC showed

the largest acceleration in foot traffic growth (+160bps), suggesting 2Q26 volume

growth above consensus expectations, followed by HCA and UHS (both +60bps) while

ARDT decelerated -60bps. THC foot traffic data points to volume growth above

consensus, but HCA, UHS, and ARDT below cons. When you look at implied Q2 volume

growth (adjusting actual Q1 growth by the sequential change in y/y growth), THC and

ARDT are above consensus, while HCA and UHS are below. However, we note that our

data does not capture Las Vegas or California, two big markets for UHS.

Exhibit 7: The sequential acceleration in foot traffic data implies vols above consensus ests.

for THC and ARDT, below for HCA and UHS

Hospital reported same store adjusted admissions growth in 2Q25 vs implied 3Q25 based on foot traffic