Equinor (EQNR NO): Hold: 2Q26 preview – Softer pricing, lower volumes

Research evidence excerpt

Equinor (EQNR NO): Hold: 2Q26 preview – Softer pricing, lower volumes

even. ROE (%) 15.5 26.8 16.7 14.8

Cutting Brent forecast: We update our macro forecasts, cutting Brent to USD80/b 52-WEEK PRICE (NOK)

(from USD95/b) for 2026 and to USD65/b (from USD75/b) for 2027 – in line with 450.00

Oil markets: Cutting forecasts: Mini-glut now, surplus later (8 July 2026). Our TTF

forecasts remain unchanged. The net effect on our estimates of macro and company 325.00

modelling updates is a 9% decrease in our adjusted post-tax earnings for 2026 to 200.00

07/25 01/26 07/26

USD3.0bn and an 8% decrease in our CFFO (pre-WC) for 2026 to USD7.6bn. Target price: 335.00

High: 420.40 Low: 227.00 Current: 336.30

2Q estimates: We cut our 2Q adjusted net income forecast by 10% to USD3.0bn, Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

predominantly driven by marking-to-market for the quarter, with Brent at USD97/b vs

our prior USD114/b forecast and TTF at USD15.6/mBtu vs our prior USD17/mBtu Sadnan Ali*, CFA

Global Oil & Gas Analyst

forecast. Our revised CFFO (pre-WC) estimate of USD7.6bn implies a 26% uplift q/q. HSBC Bank plc

Net cash balances should benefit from limited buybacks conducted in the quarter, sadnan.ali@hsbc.com

+44 207 9910569

divestment proceeds of cUSD550m for Argentina and cUSD160m for Scatec, and

Kim Fustier*

USD150m of dividends from Adura. However, it will be partially offset by a bond Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst

redemption of USD0.9bn, three NCS tax payments of USD6.4bn, and likely another HSBC Bank plc

kim.fustier@hsbc.com

working capital build given the rising price environment. Despite the cuts, we still +44 20 3359 2136

expect net debt (including lease liabilities) to sharply decline to USD9.7bn (from Ujjwal Sharma*