Gold Outlook: Shining through a hawkish tilt

Research evidence excerpt

Gold Outlook: Shining through a hawkish tilt

Commodities ● Precious Metals

9 July 2026

Executive summary

Swept lower

Gold hits record high of While many of the factors cited in our last major report Gold Outlook: Bull-dozer (8 April 2026)

USD5,450/oz in January remain intact, several new developments have further undermined gold prices. After hitting a

record high of USD5,450/oz on 30 January, the rally has since reversed. Gold surged in 2025

and the first month of this year, on a coterie of factors including a weak USD, central bank

purchases, rate cut expectations, and active ‘fear of missing out’ (FOMO). At the time of our last

Outlook gold had fallen to a then year-to-date low of USD4,097/oz. We identified several factors

responsible for gold’s drop, notably the financial market consequences of the Middle East

conflict. Contrary to expectations, gold did not rally as the conflict with Iran progressed but

almost immediately went on the defensive as the USD attracted substantial safe haven buying,

yields surged, and equities fell, prompting heavy gold liquidation. Oil price hikes contributed to

gold’s weakness to the surprise of many. We discussed the relationship between gold and oil in

previous reports including Gold Outlook: Bull-dozer (8 April 2026) and Oil & gold: They may not

mix (9 March 2026).

Gold fell to a year-to-date low Other factors contributing to gold weakness include a cooling in central bank buying – a

of USD3,942/oz in June heretofore cornerstone of the bull market – with some banks even selling bullion to conserve

forex levels, protect domestic currencies or cover higher oil imports. Hard price breaks

encouraged widespread liquidation, notably by relatively recent entrants, as physical demand in

key markets in Asia continued to contract.