Energy Portfolio Strategy: Updated "Ten Buys" List We Are Focused on Across Energy & Power Across Five Key Themes

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Portfolio Strategy: Updated "Ten Buys" List We Are Focused on Across Energy & Power Across Five Key Themes

Goldman Sachs Americas Energy

free cash flow generation should also support reliable shareholder returns, targeting

~45% of cash from operations. Near-term share performance stands to benefit from

upcoming operational catalysts, as the Willow project tracks toward first oil in early

2029 with the sea lift of processing modules representing the next milestone. In

addition, we note incremental Permian activity could support operational momentum

into 2027, unlocking potential upside to low single-digit growth in the Lower 48. While

we monitor for updates on Middle East projects, we think potential delays could be

shorter than expected.

Exhibit 2: We expect strong free cash flow per share (FCF/sh)

growth from 2025-30, estimating a CAGR of ~24% in our

assumed commodity price environment and ~20% in a

constant commodity price scenario

$18

$16

GS CAGR: +24%

$14 Flat Commodity CAGR: +20%

$12

$10

$8 FCF/sh

$6

$4

$2

$0

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

GSe Flat Commodity Scenario

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Stock 3: Devon Energy (DVN)

What are the key drivers of your investment thesis and what will support share

performance from here?

We remain constructive on DVN following our reinstatement of coverage on June 23 with

22% upside to our $53 price target at current levels. We see DVN shares trading at an

attractive 15% FCF yield on average 2027/2028 estimates relative to large cap peer

average of 11% (peers include OXY, COP, FANG, EOG). Following YTD underperformance

(DVN 18% vs XLE 24% vs oily E&P average 28%), we are constructive on DVN given the

company’s 1) focus on optimizing its competitively-scaled Delaware Basin asset, 2)