Cold water on ceasefire: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

Cold water on ceasefire: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

9 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Cold water on ceasefire

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

+1 212 526 3497

US CPI: In response to attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched strikes on Iran,

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

as President Trump suggested the ceasefire is over (Bloomberg, July 8, 2026). WTI climbed to BCI, US

$74/bbl and Brent to $79/bbl. Real yields steepened on a carry-adjusted basis: 2y -3.7bp, 5y

Apostolos Apostolou+1.9bp, 10y +2.2bp, and 30y +1.8bp. Breakevens rose on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y +1.1bp,

+1 212 526 5051

2y +1.4bp, 5y +0.9bp, 10y +0.4bp, and 30y -0.1bp. Front-end forward breakevens rose:

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

1y1y +1.8bp, 2y3y +0.9bp, 5y5y -0.8bp, 10y20y -0.7bp. FOMC minutes released on Wednesday BCI, US

reflect a split outlook on rates, with "many participants" anticipating rates to remain "within or

slightly below the current target range at the end of this year", while many others anticipated

rates to be above the range at the end of this year. The minutes also reflected broad support for

the changes in Fed communications, such as shortening the statement. Our economists forecast

CPI to have declined 0.18% m/m sa (3.8% y/y), driven by a drop in gasoline prices, and forecast

core inflation to increase to 0.26% m/m sa (2.9% y/y), led by travel-related services. Their

translation to core PCE is 0.29% m/m (3.4% y/y).

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: EUR markets reflected the energy pass-through from the Iran

escalation and the Russian ban on diesel exports (Bloomberg, July 8, 2026). Real yields