Global Metals & Mining: 3Q26 Commodity & Equity Update: Falling inflation will be a risk to most metals but a reward to gold

Research evidence excerpt

Global Metals & Mining: 3Q26 Commodity & Equity Update: Falling inflation will be a risk to most metals but a reward to gold

9 July 2026

Global Metals & Mining

Global Metals & Mining: 3Q26 Commodity & Equity Update -

Falling inflation will be a risk to most metals but a reward to gold

1H26 has proven to be a strong start for mining stocks. Our coverage has all risen in terms of Bob Brackett, Ph.D.

+1 917 344 8422 share price with the exception of the smelter-heavy Boliden and the gold-heavy Barrick and

bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Newmont. Our macro approach suggests we are late cycle and equity multiples (except for

gold stocks) sit elevated as well. We are thus defensive. We think disinflation (falling inflation)

Andrianto Guntoro, CFA will start to reduce cash costs (putting pressure on price) while providing room for a new (and

+44 20 7676 6825

andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com opaque?) Fed Chair to be more dovish.

Full details across all commodities, markets and equities follow, but we highlight some key

ideas here.

Copper. We have passed the deadline for the US Department of Commerce to endorse or

not refined copper tariffs. We (a minority view) would argue that a delay suggests a trade

deal is the preferred means for critical mineral security. We don’t believe today is a good

copper entry point (but a RIO outperform helps balance if we’re wrong). ANTO and FCX

(market perform) win if we are wrong.

Nickel. On the short list of cheap metals. Indonesian discipline has helped set a floor with

next step a rebalance. GLEN (market perform) best exposed in our coverage.

Aluminum. Strait has reopened (kind of) softening prices but the next step is slow and

costly repairs. We like the slow glide back to normal. RIO (outperform) most levered.

Gold.