REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
North America Environmental Services Waste 2Q26 earnings preview: Tough prior-year comparisons and fuel recovery lags to weigh on quarterly results; but resilient pricing, moderating labor inflation, and strengthening commodity markets keep us constructive on the balance of 2026.
Research evidence excerpt
North America Environmental Services Waste 2Q26 earnings preview: Tough prior-year comparisons and fuel recovery lags to weigh on quarterly results; but resilient pricing, moderating labor inflation, and strengthening commodity markets keep us constructive on the balance of 2026.
Equity Research
9 July 2026
North America Environmental Services
Waste 2Q26 earnings preview
Tough prior-year comparisons and fuel recovery lags to weigh
on quarterly results; but resilient pricing, moderating labor
inflation, and strengthening commodity markets keep us North America Environmental Services POSITIVE
Unchangedconstructive on the balance of 2026.
2Q26 expectations William Grippin, CFA +1 617 330 5804
We expect 2Q26 to be characterized by difficult comps from prior-year cleanup volumes and william.grippin@barclays.com
timing-related margin headwinds from fuel cost recovery programs, while underlying solid BCI, US
waste business performance remains resilient. We forecast 2Q26 y/y adj. EBITDA margin
Alec Scheibelhoffer
contraction for our Solid Waste coverage of ~8-10bps on average. In our view, pricing trends +1 212 526 1021
remain favorable, and we expect an improving price outlook due to upward CPI pressures while alec.scheibelhoffer@barclays.com
internal labor cost inflation has likely been more moderate. On volume, we anticipate more BCI, US
tempered forward-looking commentary relative to 1Q26 calls with our conversations suggesting
industrial customers pausing some project activity given macro volatility. Importantly, 2026
guides did not assume a material improvement in the macro economic outlook. A continued
recycled commodity price recovery (OCC +68% YTD), improving RIN pricing (D3 +16% YTD), and
incremental M&A all support upside potential to 2H expectations.
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