Americas Steel: Steel Supply & Demand Tracker - July 2026 Edition

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Steel: Steel Supply & Demand Tracker - July 2026 Edition

Goldman Sachs Americas Steel

indicate a trend reversal, however, we will continue to monitor July data while we await

preliminary census date for June. We further note that we estimate rebar spreads

peaked in February which, if imports tapered off in March and April, we could see rebar

roll over in July/August/September and if US rebar pricing remains muted, imports could

continue to weaken in 2H26. In relation to rebar, we believe trajectory of spreads and

demand impacts imports to a greater degree than absolute levels. Continue to watch

trajectory heading into 2H26 (Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 5: South Korean long product imports continue to Exhibit 6: Rebar import spread compression could lead to

rise but ROW imports pull back based on June license data some easing in rebar import levels

Implied long product imports - preliminary license data Rebar imports vs. US rebar-import price spread (trailing 3-mo

average)

South Korea Other South Korea % Imports US Rebar-Import spread

0.70 60% 400 0.3

0.60 50% Imports $/st 350 0.2

300 0.50 spread

40%

250 0.2 0.40 Product price

tons tons 200 30% Long import mn mn 0.30 of 0.1 150 %

20%

0.20 Korea 100

0.1 rebar-landed 50 0.10 10% South US

0.00 0% 0 0.0

Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26

Source: Census Bureau, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, S&P Global Market

Intelligence

June data likely a mixed bag across the board? Preliminary June import data + mill