Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings Preview; Addressing the Moving Parts & Investor Debates

Research evidence excerpt

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings Preview; Addressing the Moving Parts & Investor Debates

Equity Research

8 July 2026 | 4:01PM EDT

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): 2Q26 Earnings Preview; Addressing the

Moving Parts & Investor Debates

Expectations: We expect 2Q26 results to come in moderately ahead of FactSet Nick Cash

+1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com

consensus estimates, with GSe revenue/EBITDA/EPS +1.5%/+1.6%/+1.8% vs. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

consensus estimates. 1) We expect consolidated production volumes to be in-line

with consensus estimates while sales volumes could be slightly below consensus as

a result of deferrals of copper and gold sales related to inventory held by PTFI

smelting operations. 2) We expect realized copper prices to come in above

consensus estimates (GSe $6.15/lb vs. consensus $5.96/lb) as a result of an average

1.9% premium on COMEX prices vs. LME during the quarter which we expect will

help drive upside to results. 3) We expect non-copper commodity moves to

largely offset each other. We expect EBITDA headwinds related to diesel and gold

commodity moves of roughly to be largely offset by tailwinds from molybdenum and

Indonesian currency moves. 4) We expect Indonesian production volumes of

146mn lbs vs. consensus of 133mn lbs as the Block Cave ramp results in higher

realized grades.

What to listen for on the call: On the call, we expect investors to be focused on 3

key items. 1) Grasberg production and production guidance updates -

GSe/consensus are (67mn lbs)/(60mn lbs) lbs below guidance for FY2026, implying

caution around ramp trajectory, so reiteration of guidance would be a net positive. 2)

Full year cost guidance updates will be key on the back of recent commodity

volatility - 2026 guidance of $1.93/lb vs.