Poland: NBP on Hold at +3.75%; Inflation Forecasts Revised Higher

Research evidence excerpt

Poland: NBP on Hold at +3.75%; Inflation Forecasts Revised Higher

Economics Research

8 July 2026 | 4:32PM BST

Bottom Line: The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) Kevin Daly

+44(20)7774-5908 | kevin.daly@gs.com

voted today to keep its policy rate on hold at +3.75%, in line with our forecast and Goldman Sachs International

consensus expectations.

The accompanying MPC statement noted that headline inflation in Poland is higher

than at the beginning of the year – despite the recent decline from +3.1%yoy to

+2.5%yoy in May, driven by lower transport fuel and food prices – and that domestic

economic activity growth remains subdued. According to its latest estimates, the

mid-point of the NBP’s inflation forecast has been revised up from +2.25% to

+2.85% in 2026, and from +2.40% to +2.75% in 2027; however, the mid-point of the

revised forecasts remain lower than its November projections. Additionally, the

statement highlights that fiscal policy, Polish economic growth, and wage growth

developments remain the key risk factors for the inflation outlook. Forward guidance

was unchanged, with the NBP reiterating that “further decisions of the Council will

depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity”,

noting that these prospects are influenced by changes in the macroeconomic

situation abroad, particularly global commodity prices.

While the post-meeting MPC statements generally provide limited guidance,

important signals on the monetary policy stance going forward are typically

provided by NBP Governor Adam Glapinski in his post-meeting press conference.

This will take place tomorrow (Thursday, 9 July) at 14:00 GMT.

Looking ahead, the large downside surprises to inflation in the last two months