ADNOC Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD): Key takeaways from the management meeting with ADNOC Distribution; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

ADNOC Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD): Key takeaways from the management meeting with ADNOC Distribution; Buy

Equity Research

8 July 2026 | 4:46PM GST

ADNOC Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD): Key takeaways from the

management meeting with ADNOC Distribution; Buy

We attended a management briefing session with ADNOC Distribution on July 8, Faisal AlAzmeh, CFA

+971(4)376-3476 |

2026, where the company discussed the proposed acquisition of Shell Downstream faisal.alazmeh@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

South Africa (SDSA) in South Africa.

Roman Reshetnev

+971(4)376-3423 |

Bottom line: ADNOC Distribution’s management described the South Africa roman.reshetnev@gs.com

transaction as a long-considered, strategically logical expansion rather than one

Swarnilee Patradriven by recent geopolitical developments, while reiterating that the core focus +1(332)245-7700 |

remains anchored in disciplined growth, dividend visibility and future-proofing the swarnilee.patra@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

mobility platform. Key takeaways were: (i) the acquired South African network is

viewed as a high-quality, profitable asset with scope for incremental EBITDA uplift

through targeted growth initiatives rather than heavy refurbishment; (ii)

management sees US$30-40mn of incremental EBITDA upside potential, with the

lower end described as conservative, supported mainly by fuel retail and B2B diesel;

(iii) incremental capex should be manageable, per management, with historical

maintenance capex around US$15mn p.a. and additional growth capex averaging

c.US$10mn p.a.; (iv) the transaction is expected to be funded partly by ADNOC

Distribution-level debt, with no capital control constraints in South Africa; (v)

management reiterated that dividend policy remains clear and protected through