Kakao Corp. (035720.KS) 2Q26E preview; Core Platform resilient; AI launch catalyst remains intact; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Kakao Corp. (035720.KS) 2Q26E preview; Core Platform resilient; AI launch catalyst remains intact; Buy

Goldman Sachs Kakao Corp. (035720.KS)

That said, we believe investor focus should be less on the launch itself, and more on

evidence of repeat usage, partner expansion, transaction completion and user

engagement that could gradually validate Kakao’s AI monetization framework.

Key numbers

n We expect 2Q consolidated top line to come in at W2trn (+6% YoY and +5%

QoQ) and OP W214bn (+5% YoY and +1% QoQ), broadly in-line with BBG

consensus: While top line growth momentum should be supported by Talk Biz ads

(+20% YoY), Commerce (+16%), Mobility (+10%), and Pay (+26% YoY), we expect

Portal Biz impact from AXZ deconsolidation from May to slightly offset revenue

growth (expect Portal Biz revenue to decline -40% YoY). Meanwhile, on OP, we

expect relatively high marketing spend on Piccoma to slightly pressure margins.

n Key numbers to track (thesis pillars):

o Core Platform recovery: We continue to monitor Talk Biz growth, Biz Message

expansion, advertising inventory improvement following the KakaoTalk

revamp, and operating leverage. We believe these remain the primary

near-term earnings drivers and now carry greater weight within our

investment thesis.

o Portfolio restructuring and earnings quality improvement: We will look for

continued reduction in non-core subsidiary losses and improvements in

consolidated earnings visibility. Successful execution should help to improve

earnings quality and allow management to focus more clearly on core

operations.

o AI ecosystem development: Rather than headline product launches, we focus

on measurable ecosystem progress including external partner onboarding,

breadth of vertical integrations, and management commentary regarding